“Resource insecurity is becoming the main cause of forced migration.” To what extent do you agree with this statement?

Marks should be allocated according to the paper 2 section C markbands. These can be found under the “Your tests” tab > supplemental materials.

Possible applied themes (AO2) demonstrating knowledge and understanding (AO1):

• Resource insecurity that could result in forced migration could be related to food – famine; water –or drought/contamination/disease. For example, Somalis moving to Kenya as a result of ongoing drought and famine.
• Population growth many be seen as the underlying cause of resource insecurity, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Alternatively there are many other causes of forced migration, both political (war/minority persecution), social (intolerance eg, LGBTQI+/crime/religion), economic (lack of employment opportunities) and environmental (sea level changes).
• Many of the factors listed above do not work in isolation and have close causal links – many wars are the result of access to resources eg, Somalia, Sudan.
• Responses may argue that the underlying cause of all significant forced migrations is climate change, which increases the likelihood of resource insecurity.

Good answers may be well structured (AO4) and may additionally offer a critical evaluation (AO3) that focuses on the changing role of resource insecurity as a catalyst of forced migrations over time. Responses may address the spatial aspect of forced migration and the role of resource insecurity in different parts of the world.

For 5–6 marks
Expect a weakly evidenced outlining of resource insecurity as a cause of forced migration

For 7–8 marks
Expect a well-structured account which includes:

• either a well-evidenced synthesis that links together several themes from the guide and acknowledges both sides of the argument
• or a critical conclusion (or ongoing evaluation) informed by geographical concepts and/or perspectives.

For 9–10 marks
Expect both traits.

As with question 5, candidates were competent in their knowledge and understanding of causes of forced migration and what was pleasing was the sustained focus on forced migration with limited drift into voluntary migration. The majority of responses related resource insecurity to food and the causes of food shortage whether natural or human. Surprisingly few attempted to review the impact of population growth on the demand for resources and most relied on the analysis of food supply. A number linked resource insecurity with climate change and developed good case studies that explained the pressure of climate change consequences such as sea level rise, increased occurrence of drought and extreme weather on resource security. When examining other causes of forced migration, the majority of answers focused on political tensions and armed conflict, which was perfectly acceptable but there could have been more reference to social intolerance. In a number of cases candidates addressed the 'to what extent' aspect of the question by examining the diversity and integration of factors that cause forced migration with some good case study material from Syria and Iraq. This allowed candidates to give the critical evaluation required for a comprehensive response to the question. Other answers addressed the evaluation by looking at the causes of forced migration in different locations. As with question 5, answers were stronger in knowledge and understanding than application and evaluation.

Outline what is meant by “fertility rate”.

Suggest two reasons why fertility rates decline when the status of women is improved.

Reason 1:

Reason 2:

Explain why some places have an uneven sex ratio as a result of migration.

Explain why some places have an uneven sex ratio as a result of an ageing society.

The number of children/number of births per 1000 women [1] a woman gives birth to during her lifetime/fertile years/reproductive age/below 50 [1].

In each case, award [1] for a valid reason and [1] for development of how it impacts upon the fertility rate.

Possibilities include:

• Employment – delayed marriage and delayed childbirth.
• Access to family planning services.
• Education for women – delays marriage/childbirth.
• Reduced child mortality rates – fewer replacement births.
• Societal status of women – women have more freedom and rights, thus giving them more decision-making powers.

For example: One reason is because women have more access to contraception and birth control advice [1] which means they have more control over the number of children in their families [1].

Answers may refer to source or destination places and can be based on international/regional/rural:urban migration.

Award [1] for a basic explanatory comment and [1] for further valid explanation/exemplification linked to a valid and identified uneven sex ratio.

Valid reasons may include:

• Migration of males to find work gives higher proportion of males in working in destination countries/gives lower proportion of males in origin countries.
• Inability of male labourers to bring families with them gives higher proportion of males.
• Migration of female domestic and care labour e.g. Sri Lanka leaves a gap in the middle age female groups.
• Migration of males of fighting age to join armies, leaves places with a higher proportion of young females.

For example: Influx of male construction workers into an oil rich nation such as UAE [1] so there tends to be a larger proportion of men than women [1].

Award [1] for a basic explanatory comment and [1] for further explanation/exemplification linked to a valid and identified uneven sex ratio.

Valid reasons may include:

• Macho culture encourages risky behaviour meaning higher mortality as the population ages.
• Males occupy dangerous jobs that lead to a higher mortality leaving a smaller proportion of males in older age groups.
• Child mortality is higher amongst boys, more females survive until old age.
• Biological difference in chromosomes and hormones, females are advantaged [less fat surrounding organs] and live longer.
• Females more willing to consult medical advice, live longer.

For example: Women tend to have higher life expectancies than men [1], so in the over 65s there tends to be a greater proportion of women than men [1].

Many candidates identified both elements of the definition and referred to the number of births per woman and an appropriate time period such as fertile years or in her lifetime. Some missed out on the second mark by only referring to the number of births. Unfortunately, there were a number of answers that displayed confusion between the meanings of fertility rate and birth rate. Candidates need to display an understanding of the terminologies used in the guide

In general, this was well answered, and candidates had a good grasp of the improvement of the status of women with reference to education, employment and family planning being the most frequent reasons identified. The development points were often well made and explained why the selected reasons caused the reduction of fertility rates. Fewer responses commented on the wider points of the societal status of women. Some candidates commented on reasons for decline in fertility rates but failed to relate them to the improved status of women. Reasons such as wealthier populations and changes in the influence of religion may be valid but they do not answer the question set.

Many candidates recognized the need to comment on the gender imbalance of many migration patterns most commonly citing male dominated international and internal economic migrations. Some referred to the gender imbalances caused by conflict. However, a significant number did not explain and describe how this resulted in an uneven sex ratio merely repeating the question. It is important that candidates heed the requirements of the question.

This question was well answered. Most candidates were able to explain a reason for female longevity with behaviour, occupation and biological differences being the most popular choices. The majority of correct answers went on to describe and explain how this led to an uneven sex ratio. Some candidates were confused and explained the causes of ageing societies, commonly with reference to China and the impacts of the one child policy.

Outline what is meant by the rate of natural increase.

Explain one political cause and one political consequence of forced migration.

Political cause:

Political consequence:  

Explain two policies that are used to promote gender equality.

Policy 1:

Policy 2:

Award [1] for comment on relationship between BR and DR and [1] for development

For example: Birth rate – death rate/difference between birth rate and death rate [1], usually expressed as a % or per 1000 population OR does not take into account migration [1].

Award [1] for identification of a valid political cause/consequence (this may concern political groups, nations, international organisations etc.) and [1] for development/exemplification.

Political cause
For example: Civil war [1] in Somalia conflict has led many to flee to safe neighbouring countries such as Kenya [1].
The persecution of minorities [1] means that sub-national groups are afraid and flee to avoid discrimination [1].

Other possibilities could include:

• government policies
• changing borders
• civil unrest
• limited civic freedom
• political instability.
• lack of political liberties.

Political consequence 
For example: Rise of extremist groups in refugee camps [1] increased Al Shabaab terrorist attacks in Nairobi, Kenya [1].

Other possibilities could include:

• changing government policies
• rise of far-right groups in host countries
• establishment of harsh borders
• destabilisation of government due to actual or perceived pressures
• loss of trust in policy makers to control flows/alienation hypothesis transmission of political values of host country back to country of origin.
• Conflict between states – Belarus/Poland

Identification of valid and distinct policy [1] and [1] for further development and/or exemplification.

For example: A quota system whereby a number of positions are reserved for women [1]; in Afghanistan a quarter of the parliamentary seats are reserved for women [1].

Possibilities include but are not limited to:

• legislation – such as sex discrimination acts which make it unlawful to discriminate on the basis of sex
• education – put gender equity into the curriculum, promote women in STEM subjects
• empowering mothers with prolonged paid maternity leave, financial rewards, free childcare, paternity leave
• campaigns/Legislation promoting equal pay for women
• quotas for females in government so they have an influence on gender equality laws/legislation
• financing of women’s groups to aid their economic and social development.

Most candidates displayed a basic understanding of natural increase and identified the relationship between birth rate and death rate. The better answers went on to develop the relationship in response to the command word "outline". These candidates either described the numerical element(s) of the term or reinforced the "natural" dimension by pointing out the omission of migration as a component of increase. Where full marks were not awarded it was these aspects of development that were usually omitted.

Responses to the first element of this question were generally secure with the majority of answers referring to civil war as a driver of forced migration and illustrating this with exemplar material from Syria. The more comprehensive answers explained how civil war impacted on the decision to migrate with reference to safety and lifestyle. Where Myanmar was selected as the example many responses were careful to link cultural persecution with civic freedom, discrimination or government policies. This linked the example to the political requirement of the question. However, some answers were less analytical and simply made reference to the Rohingya being forced out. There were some candidates who recognized the broader elements of civic freedom and government policies and explained their impact on the persecution of particular political groups and human rights violations.

Candidates had less success in the second element of the question. Many answers failed to address the political aspect of the consequences of forced migration and instead gave general observations on the impacts of migration. These were frequently focused on cultural and social effects relating to resources used by migrants and although some hinted at discord they failed to link this approach to political consequences. There were some good responses that used this to develop political ramifications such as the rise in far-right groups, but these were not prevalent. Few explored border issues or impacts upon government policies.

Answers to this question were usually convincing, displaying a confident grasp of the relevant sections of the syllabus. The main policies advanced were those associated with education, equal pay and quota systems for political and corporate power. Many candidates were able to explain how these policies promoted gender equality with good exemplification including material from previous infographic resources. Where credit was lost it was often the result of vague and descriptive development which did not explicitly link the policy to the implementation of gender equality. In several instances candidates failed to focus on policies and instead highlighted goals, aspirations and measures that related to gender equality but contained no distinct strategy.

“Of all the demographic challenges nations face, ageing is the most serious.” To what extent do you agree with this statement?

Refer to Paper 2 section C markbands (available under the "Your tests" tab > supplemental materials).

Perspectives on what constitutes a demographic challenge will vary as they are likely to be place- and time-specific. Responses may tackle the question on a regional or global scale and a clear understanding of the terms “ageing population” (an increase in the percentage of the population over 65) and “demographic challenge” should be evident, although not explicitly outlined.

Possible applied themes (AO2) demonstrating knowledge and understanding (AO1):

• Ageing may produce demographic challenges that can be seen as negative such as socio-economic impacts, including dependency, grey economy, pensions, tax rates, health care etc [Unit 1:3]
• Ageing may produce positive socio-economic impacts such as employment opportunities, the grey economy, reduced crime rates etc [Unit 1:3]
• Other aspects of population structure may cause demographic challenges such as youthful populations, gender imbalances, needs of special groups (disability and HIV) [Unit 1:3]
• Population movements may produce demographic challenges – forced and voluntary migrations, rapid/large scale population growth in urban areas [Unit 1:2]
• Population change and resource consumption and neo-Malthusian ideas of over-population [Unit 3:3]

Good answers may be well structured (AO4) and may additionally offer a critical evaluation (AO3) which assesses the relative seriousness of the consequences of a population ageing in different places and the possibilities of managing ageing populations. Another approach might be to focus on other demographic challenges identified above and an explanation as to why these are very serious and ageing is less so.

For 5–6 marks
Expect some outlining of the consequences of an ageing population and/or an alternate demographic challenge. The response is partial, narrow or lacks supporting evidence.

For 7–8 marks
Expect a well-structured account which includes:

• either a well-evidenced synthesis which links together several well evidenced ageing and demographic themes from the Guide
• or a critical conclusion (or ongoing evaluation) informed by geographical concepts and/or perspectives.

For 9–10 marks
Expect both traits.

This was the most popular choice in section C and there were some good answers that addressed the whole question. In the better answers the discussion of 'to what extent' took a variety of formats with candidates frequently outlining the challenges of ageing populations in an initial section using Japan, Germany, the UK and Italy as examples. Challenges were usually based on the impacts of ageing on economic development, social care and benefits. In many cases these challenges were then compared to the positives presented by an ageing population such as employment opportunities and the grey economy. Further analysis of demographic challenge was included by reference to other age-specific challenges such as youthful populations and gender inequality. Broader answers examined the challenges produced by international migration and urban growth, particularly megacities. A small number viewed demographic challenges as population growth in relation to resources. Candidates were not able to consider all of these but a developed discussion of a small number in relation to ageing fulfilled the requirement of the essay. However, many essays ignored the invitation to discuss and gave an overview of ageing societies that was typically structured around their causes, consequences and management using a developed case study. There were some interesting answers that took a national focus, usually China, and discussed changing demographic challenges over time. 

“The greatest global demographic challenge is the growth of overpopulated megacities.” To what extent do you agree with this statement?

Refer to Paper 2 section C markbands (available under the "Your tests" tab > supplemental materials).

Reponses will probably address the demographic challenge facing individuals at a local scale using family and community as the basis of their comment. Be prepared to credit other scales if valid. Answers should make use of well-developed case study/studies.

Possible applied themes (AO2) demonstrating knowledge and understanding (AO1):

• The growth of megacities and the threat of reduced access to housing, services and infrastructure.
• The growth of megacities and the threat to health and crime.
• The growth of megacities and the threat of physical and legal insecurity – eviction from unplanned settlements.
• The growth of megacities and the threat to farmland surrounding cities – individuals being pushed off their land.
• The growth of megacities and the threat to the individual’s links to community – segregation and isolation.
• Knowledge and understanding of other demographic challenges such as ageing, migration, rapid population growth.

Good answers may be well structured (AO4) and may additionally offer a critical evaluation (AO3) that evaluates the relative importance of the demographic threat to individuals posed by the growth of megacities.

Evaluation may take a variety of forms which may include:

• An evaluation of the various demographic challenges posed by megacities.
• An evaluation of the demographic challenges posed by megacities as opposed to other demographic threats, such as ageing, migration, rapid population growth and its impacts on employment/education opportunities, etc.
• An evaluation of the various demographic challenges posed by megacities in different locations and stages of development, eg New York and Dhaka.
• An evaluation of the changing demographic challenges posed by megacities over time.
• An evaluation of how challenges are perceived in different parts of society.

For 5–6 marks
Expect weakly evidenced outlining of the demographic challenges facing individuals posed by megacities.

For 7–8 marks
Expect a well-structured account which includes:

• either a well-evidenced synthesis of the demographic challenges facing individuals posed by megacities and other components
• or a critical conclusion (or ongoing evaluation) informed by geographical concepts and/or perspectives.

For 9–10 marks
Expect both traits.

State the median age for Country B in the year 2000.

State which country has the greatest projected increase in median age between 2010 and 2040.

Explain one reason why the median age of a population could decrease.

Explain one environmental consequence of one named forced migration.

Named example of forced migration:

Environmental consequence:

Explain one policy designed to prevent human trafficking.

29 (years). Accept 28–29.

Country B

Award [1] for a valid reason for the decrease in median age and [1] for explanation of how it affects the median age.

Valid reasons (dependent on current median age) include:

• In-migration of youthful people/out-migration of elderly people.
• High birth rate/rise in birth rate/fertility rate will increase the proportion of younger population.
• Increased mortality among elderly population/decrease in life expectancy.
• Increase in death rate due to conflict decreases the proportion of independent population.

For example: The arrival of youthful economic migrants [1] means proportionately more younger people, reducing the median age [1].

The example could be internal displacement or refugees. Accept a broad interpretation of “environmental”, to include the built environment and landscape.

Identified and located example of a forced migration [1]. Identified environmental consequence [1]. Further developed explanation [1].

Environmental consequence of migration may include:

• Deforestation
• Soil erosion
• Contamination of water supplies – rivers/groundwater
• Depletion of water resources
• Waste disposal
• Aesthetic damage
• Production of environments that breed disease
• Loss of biodiversity
• Air pollution
• Land degradation.

For example: Northern Cameroon hosts Nigerian refugees who have escaped violence [1] this has caused rapid deforestation [1] as refugees need firewood for cooking [1].

For example: Lebanon has many Syrian refugees escaping war [1] the waste from informal settlements is often dumped in an uncontrolled manner [1] this leads to soil and water pollution [1].

Identification of a valid policy at societal, NGO, national or international level [1]; development with details on how it operated/operates [1] further development which may include why it was introduced or magnitude of the problem [1].

Policies may include:

• Accreditation schemes such as Fair Trade, Global Organic Textile Standard, Ethical Trading initiative decrease demand for cheap clothes that cause trafficking of labour in LICs
• Education of individuals to decrease demand for services provided by trafficked populations – “John Schools” in USA that are aimed at changing attitudes of sex buyers
• National Agency against Trafficking in Persons in Romania educates target groups to increase their awareness
• Travel restrictions – children not travel without parents’/parent’s signature eg Brazil
• Community activities such as vigilance groups in India that detect trafficked population in villages
• Prosecution of individuals/firms that use trafficked labour or groups that organize the trafficking of people by the National Crime Agency in UK
• Government legislation intended to curb trafficking eg Danish Criminal Code, Modern Slavery Act in UK
• Border controls such as border patrols by South African National Defence Force
  on SA’s northern borders
• International co-operation – UN Protocol against trafficking
• Improve the lives of vulnerable groups of people in LICs eg National Referral Mechanism (UK agency) improving women’s accessibility to work in Albania.

For example:

• Cambodia passed legislation in 2008 [1] that criminalizes all forms of trafficking for men, women and children [1]. Fines and prison sentences are applied to those convicted [1].

The majority of candidates were confident with the extraction of data from a line graph and gave a correct answer. There were however a number that were not accurate enough with their use of the axes and gave a figure outside of the acceptable range. Candidates may benefit from practice in graph analysis under timed conditions to improve their efficiency of data extraction.

This question was answered correctly by the vast majority of candidates.

Most candidates referred to birth rate or migration when identifying an appropriate reason for a decrease in median age. Some answers gave a correct reason but failed to explain how it resulted in a lower median age, for example they identified an increase in birth rate but did not outline how this resulted in a population with a higher proportion of younger people. Fewer answers referred to increased mortality of the elderly population but when it did occur it was well understood.

The majority of candidates named forced migration from Syria as their example although a significant number answered using environmental refugees to illustrate involuntary migration. These candidates chose their named example from a variety of areas affected by climatic extremes or sea level change. The best answers concentrated on the impacts of migrants on the destination location with reference to biomes, soils and water. Some candidates did, validly, examine the impacts of migration on the environment of the source area as population densities decreased. However, many candidates misunderstood the question and frequently referred to the environmental conditions that caused migration. It should also be noted that a number of candidates failed to name the forced migration or gave a generic cause such as volcanic eruptions. 

Candidates that did well in this question often produced answers that were based on an identified policy such as border controls in the USA, travel restrictions for children in Brazil, educating vulnerable groups in rural Vietnam or ethical trading initiatives that address trafficking such as Fairtrade. Some answers looked at international co-operation such as the UN Trafficking Protocol. The use of specific policies enabled far more focus when it came to explanatory development, whether this was details of how it operated or why it was introduced. However, there were a significant number of answers that failed to identify a specific policy and gave generic answers that were based vaguely on trafficking.

State which year had the highest percentage of children trafficked.

Determine the range in percentage of women trafficked.

Explain one way in which people trafficking can be reduced.

Suggest how two groups of people have been affected by one pro-natalist or anti-natalist policy you have studied.

Country: 

Group 1: 

Group 2:

2012

7 % (accept 46 %-53 %)

Award [1] for identification of a valid way to reduce trafficking with a further [1] for development/exemplification.

For example:
Increased border controls (checking of paperwork) / training of border control staff [1] eg in South Africa the documents of people travelling with children are checked [1].

Other possibilities include:

• Protection, assistance and support – increased efforts to protect foreign national victims as well as non-immigrants.
• Coordination of key agencies such as police forces.
• Investigation and prosecution – of traffickers related to forced labour and sexual exploitation.
• Prevention – to assist other governments to reduce trafficking.
• Policies by industries and institutions – refusal to work with firms that exploit trafficked people.
• Measures to turn back migrants – in the Mediterranean, the refusal by the Italian government, led by Salvini, to allow migrant rescue ships to disembark refugees.
• Education – informing vulnerable groups of their rights eg The Freedom Story in Thailand, educating communities in destinations to raise awareness of, and report trafficking eg school curriculum in Nebraska.
• Advertising – raising awareness in vulnerable groups, reduction in demand by restricting advertising on social media .
• Improve the lives of vulnerable groups in source countries.

Two different groups must be identified.
Only credit points that are related to the effects of the policy on groups and not the operation of the policy.

In each case, allow [1] for identification of a valid group and up to a further [2] for the development of how the group are affected by the policy and/or a link of the group to the policy.

For example: Young girls in China were abandoned in nurseries [1] due to the preference for having boys as a result of the One Child Policy [1], which has led to them having no legal status and a lack of opportunities for education, healthcare, etc [1].

Other possibilities include:

• Parents with increased parental leave.
• Children getting better education due to government provision.
• Men of marrying age who cannot find a female partner because of gender imbalance.
• Women who can now enter the workplace
• Employers who find it difficult to recruit workers
• Minority groups who are stopped from practising their culture
• Younger generation that have to look after an ageing population
• Women who have more children and go back to work part time instead of their original full-time job

Describe the projected trends for the two dependent population groups from 2020 to 2060.

Suggest two potential socio-economic problems that could result from the projected population trend.

Socio-economic problem 1:

Socio-economic problem 2:

Explain two ways in which one named country benefits from a demographic dividend.

Named country: 

Way 1:

Way 2:

Award [1] for each valid descriptive statement. Needs separate reference to both elderly [1] and children [1] for maximum marks.

Quantification is needed for [2].

Possibilities include:

• 65 and over - no change / the proportion increases (actual amount remains 34–36 million but the percentage of 65 and over increases)
• 0–15 - drops (from 14–16 in 2020 to 7–9 in 2060) / the proportion of the total population decreases).

The trend can be falling population total / a greying population / decreasing number of children.

Allow [1] for a valid problem and [1] for development or exemplification.

Possibilities include:

• declining population and the resulting economic implications, such as a reduced workforce, decreased tax revenue, shortage of qualified workers, declining productivity, high labour costs, a smaller tax base
• declining population and social implications, such as social consequences of immigration caused by shortage of workers
• increased dependency ratio/ageing population - increased expenditure to care for an ageing population due to pensions, health care
• decreasing number of children – may lead to closure of schools, unemployment in education sector

For example: An ageing population [1] would need more money to be spent on pensions [1], which would take a larger proportion of a nation’s GDP [1]. as seen in the UK [1].

For example: A declining population [1] means that there will be a smaller workforce [1], which may mean that people are made to stay in work for longer [1]. In recent years the retirement age in Canada has increased from 65 to 67 [1].

Allow [1] for a valid way and [1] for development or exemplification.

Possibilities include:

• Increased proportion of the population in the independent age range – provides a larger work force, increase in economic growth, potentially a larger market, increase in tax returns
• Falling fertility rates – more women enter the workforce, boosting gender equity, lower proportion of children to support, frees up resources for investment in economic development/family welfare
• Attracts large amounts of foreign investment, the nation becomes more important on the global stage.
• Increase in savings rate – working age is the prime period for saving, working population saving for old age
• Potential reduction in poverty – higher proportion of population working,(higher proportion of middle-income earners)

For example: India has one of the youngest populations and this will give an increase in economic growth [1] due to an increase in the proportion of independent population that provides a workforce [1].

Award a maximum of [3] if no valid country is identified.

The better answers took each dependent population and gave a valid comment on the projected changes from 2020 to 2060 using quantification from the resource. However, there were a number of issues that restricted access to full credit. Many did not heed the time period required by the question and examined the graph from 2020 to 2100 and stated, incorrectly, that the elderly displayed a significant decrease. A number of comments combined the two groups stating that both had declined whilst the question asked for comment on each. A number of answers displayed a lack of ability to read a basic compound line graph which meant that quantification was an issue for some candidates.

Candidates frequently showed a clear knowledge and understanding of a declining and ageing population. Answers identified both social and economic problems and were able to develop both elements of their responses. There were some strong comments relating to economic problems, however there could have been more integrated exemplification. Some candidates adopted a narrow focus in their answers and repetition of the same point was an issue.

Many responses made changes to the size and dynamism of the workforce the focal point of their answers with development directed at the economic benefits of increased output and potential market. A significant number also saw the benefits for inward investment, but fewer answers examined the gender-related social benefits. Candidates need to be aware of the countries that have recently benefited from the demographic dividend and avoid historic examples.

Outline the distribution of the Venezuelan states with population densities of above 100 persons per km².

Explain two physical reasons why some areas have a low population density.

Reason 1:

Reason 2:

Explain one cultural reason and one economic reason why fertility rates are decreasing.

Cultural reason:

Economic reason:

Award [1] for each valid statement, up to a maximum of [2].

Possibilities include:

• coastal
• in the north of the country (accept NW and W)
• linked to concentration of urban areas/close to capital
• linear/arc-like pattern
• located and named anomaly – San Cristobal/Barquisimeto are inland / La Asuncion an island
• clustered.

Identification of a valid physical reason [1] and [1] for further development of how it has led to a low population density.

For example: Mountainous areas frequently have low population densities [1] as the terrain is rugged and steep and agriculture is difficult to practice (and accessibility is poor) [1].

Possibilities include:

• Extreme climate – where the climate is too cold (e.g. Antarctica) or too hot (e.g. Sahara Desert) – leads to problems of agricultural production/human survival.
• Vegetation – areas of dense vegetation (e.g. the Amazon Rainforest) – often have difficult accessibility.
• Water supply – where the water supply is low/unpredictable – difficulty with agriculture/limited water to drink.
• Poor soils – if the soil is thin and unproductive – cannot produce crops or raise livestock.
• Resources – areas with few resources e.g. minerals – lack of opportunity for economic development.
• Frequent natural hazards – high risk of death/injury.
• Disease – areas with high incidence of vector borne diseases e.g. malaria – avoided to cut down risk of illness.
• Remote/landlocked areas – difficulties in access/industrial development/ability to export goods.

In each case, award [1] for a valid reason with [1] for further development linked to decreasing fertility rates.

For example: There has been a decreasing influence of religion [1] – religious influence on birth control is no longer strong in western societies [1].

Cultural reasons may include:

• female empowerment/gender equality – females have careers/females have greater role in decisions that impact their lives
• loosening of extended family ties – the influence of family pressure to have larger numbers of children decreased
• shifting attitude towards life – younger population feel their sense of self can be complete without children
• mass media – soap operas and reality TV influence the attitudes of society e.g. 16 and Pregnant in USA
• Westernization of culture in LICs/MICs – impact of western charities who give out contraceptives
• access to reproductive health services – contraception decreases the number of pregnancies
• age of marriage increasing – decreases the number that can be conceived
• changing perceptions of parenting – parenting seen to be time consuming with high expectations
• concern for the environment – fewer children puts less pressure on the environment.

Economic reasons may include:

• employment opportunities – the prospect of a career, women may have less children and marry later
• the cost of having children – time spent in education and the cost of childcare makes it more expensive to have a large number of children.
• recession – people put off decision to have children, women must work so that household income is sufficient
• development of a country's economy – allows investment in education
• lack of affordable housing – difficulty in finding accommodation for larger families
• provision of pensions – need to have support in old age lessened
• high cost of living – extra child becomes very expensive, women cannot afford to take time off work.

Responses to this question were generally good and candidates seem to have been well prepared for the description of distributions. Good answers generally used compass directions to identify the areas of high population density although many referred to the coastal component of the distribution. It was clear that candidates had also been schooled to take heed of anomalies to the general pattern. Some candidates made valid comment on the spatial pattern of distribution with reference to the clustered nature of the configuration.

The quality of answers to this question was variable. The better responses regularly selected mountainous terrain and extreme climate as the reasons for low population density and then gave explanatory development such as agricultural adversity. Other frequent causes of low population density were vegetation, water supply and infertile soils. Often candidates could identify a reason, but their explanations lacked understanding or precision.

A significant number of candidates sought to relate their answers to Venezuela, which was feasible but limited the possibilities for discussion. When candidates are required to use a resource, this will be indicated in the question. Pleasingly only a minority of candidates gave non-physical reasons for low population density.

This question asked the candidates to classify reasons for declining fertility rates which proved difficult for some candidates. It was evident that candidates could identify several valid drivers of declining fertility, but many had difficulty in correctly categorizing them. This was particularly the case with cultural reasons. Good responses usually examined female empowerment and influence of religion as the reason although many looked at shifting attitude to life and Westernization of culture as alternatives. A good number however strayed into financial and social reasons. Candidates were more secure when discussing economic reasons, frequently citing female employment and, topically, the cost of raising children as causes of declining fertility. Once they had correctly grouped their reasons most candidates were able to give further explanatory development.

Determine the range of hours lost in congestion per year in the selected megacities.

Identify one megacity that will see an estimated decline in population between 2017 and 2030.

Describe the pattern of estimated GDP growth in Asian megacities between 2017 and 2030.

To what extent does the infographic indicate that the consequences of megacity growth are always negative?

232 or 40 − 272 [1]

Tokyo or Osaka [1]

Award [1] for valid comment on overall pattern and [1] for development or exemplification.

Mostly above 100 %
Mostly SE/S/E Asia
Mainly coastal cities
No BR/DR relationship or migration
Highest Dhaka – 35 % [34–36 %]
Smallest growth in Osaka and Tokyo – 2 % [1–3 %]

Quantification required for award of full [2].

Example: Estimated GDP growth in Asian megacities between these years is expected to be mostly over 100 % [1]. The biggest single increase is expected in Dhaka – at least 35 % [1].

The question is asking candidates to examine the positive and negative consequences of megacity growth shown on the infographic. Answers should focus on the identification and development of consequences of megacity growth and not a critique of style.

Award [1] for each positive or negative consequence and further [2] for each supported development/explanation up to a maximum of [5].

Award the final [1] for a supported overall appraisal which weighs up the infographic as a whole.

Award maximum of [4] if only one perspective (positive or negative) is given.

For example:
Initial negative focus:

• Produces high population densities [1] but these are variable [1]: higher in Asian cities [1], lower in the Americas
• Produces urban sprawl [1] mostly in megacities of HICs [1]
• Results in congestion [1], variable magnitude in hours lost [1] (less in US cities [1], no discernable in other cities cited)
• Results in high rates of population growth [1]: African cities growing fastest [1], European cities not growing as fast [1].

Strength:

• Nodes of investment
• High rates of GDP growth [1] mostly Asian cities
• Contribution to countries GDP [1], over-reliance with some cities [1]; some countries have more than one megacity contribution [1].

Overall appraisal can be found at the beginning or end of the answer and maybe a comment such as: The negative consequences are related more to the ordinary lives of people.

For example: The infographic shows that congestion is a negative consequence of growth as drivers in 5 cities lose over 200 hours per year [1]. Some cities are predicted to grow at very fast rates with the population of Lagos estimated to increase by 34% from 2017-30 [1]. Often growth produces high densities of population, especially where the city only covers a limited area [1]. However in Asian megacities there will also be impressive growth in wealth with the GDP of Dhaka growing by about 170% [1]. Megacities also house the most affluent sections of the population [1]. Overall the infographic provides a balanced view of megacity growth [1].

Most candidates used the infographic to give correct answers.

Nearly all answers were correct.

Most answers were able to use the infographic to outline one element of the pattern of estimated GDP growth. Many referred to the magnitude of growth relative to other regions with the better answers commenting on variations within Asia by way of development. Some commented on the spatial distribution within Asia by referring to regional/national patterns or the coastal location. The answers that gained full credit provided some quantification to support their descriptions.

A substantial number of candidates engaged with the infographic in an appropriate manner by analysing its geographical content concerning the consequences of megacity growth. The most common approach was to identify elements of the infographic that had a positive and negative focus with the better responses using data from the resource to support their arguments. Nearly all made comment on GDP growth and congestion although only a minority reflected on population density. Pleasingly some referred to the variation within the measures presented on the infographic by making statements about congestion not being a problem in all megacities, density not being such an issue in megacities with large areal extent or not all cities with a high growth having large increases in GDP. However, this was not frequently observed and may be something that could be worked on in preparation for future assessments. Candidates had been well rehearsed in the structure of a response to this question with clear positive and negative points with a supported conclusion.

Estimate the percentage of daily income that those in extreme poverty spend on food.

Identify in which decade extreme poverty declined the fastest.

Using evidence from the infographic, explain one way it clearly demonstrates to the audience how they can help end poverty.

Evaluate the strength of the links between poverty and gender that are shown in this infographic.

Approximately 60 % (allow 55 % to 65 %).

2000–2010 or the 2000s (do not accept 2000)

Award [1] for valid evidence from the infographic that is linked to poverty and [1] for linking how the audience’s help or action can be used to end poverty.

The audience can be individuals, groups (such as charities) or governments.

For example:
The infographic shows that change could be achieved by alleviating extreme hunger [1] and individuals could donate money to provide food/improve agriculture [1].

Or

The infographic shows that change could be achieved by improving sanitation [1] and charities could provide clean water so that fewer people are sick and can work to provide money/food for their families [1].

Or

On the infographic, the prominent extended hand is asking for money [1] governments can use this for job creation, which will provide people with better wages [1].

Award [1] for each link identified and a further [1] for each relevant development/explanation point, up to a maximum of [5]. Maximum [4] if only one aspect is addressed Award the final [1] for an overall appraisal that weighs up the strengths/limitations of the links shown in the infographic.

The links between gender and poverty can be seen in a positive fashion (eg therole of women in the alleviation of poverty through education) or negative fashion (eg the stereotyped view of women/men in the workforce).

There are aspects of the infographic that link gender and poverty

• The job creation aspect has a focus on the role of men in the pictogram.
• The help through government programs examines the transfer to mothers who focus on education.
• Maternal mortality.

There are other aspects of the infographic that link poverty to alternative factors:

• Urban/rural
• Conflict
• The distribution of wealth in society
• The role of access to basic services.

For example:

The infographic recognizes that women have a central part in the delivery of government programmes [1] where cash can be provided to mothers [1] who use the money to provide education for their children [1]. The education of the most vulnerable enables them to engage in income generating activities [1] that that takes them out of poverty [1].

The job creation bar graph uses a symbol that depicts only men [1], implying strongly that only men make up the work force [1] and, hence, that it is only men that can contribute to alleviating poverty [1]. Furthermore, women are depicted as the primary caregivers of children [1], reinforcing gender stereotypes as non-providers of income [1]. Overall, however, the links are not very strong and it does not seem to be the central message of the infographic [1].